This morning Axel Rudakubana admitted the murder of three beautiful young girls, each of them brimming with confidence and so much potential that sadly now will never be realised.
Rudakubana also admitted the attempted murder of eight more children and two adults; possession of a bladed article; production of a biological toxin; and possession of information of a kind likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism.
The three young girls killed by Rudakubana were 9-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar, 6-year-old Bebe King and 7-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe.
They, along with the eight other child victims, had been attending a dance class in Southport on the morning of Monday, 29th July 2024. The exact details of what happened that morning have been widely reported and are too distressing to repeat here.
One of the adult victims, Leanne Lucas, was leading the class. She bravely resisted Rudakubana as many of the children fled to safety. The second adult victim, local businessman Jonathan Hayes, was working elsewhere in the building when he overheard the blood-curdling screams. He grappled with Rudakubana as he tried to flee the scene.
Rudakubana, 18, will be sentenced on Thursday, 23rd January 2024.
For murder there is only one sentence prescribed in law and that is one of life imprisonment. However, the sentencing judge, The Honourable Mr Justice Goose, is required to determine the minimum term that Rudakubana is required to serve before he can be considered for parole.
The process of determining the minimum term is set out in schedule 21 of the Sentencing Act 2020, which I shall now explain below.
It must be stressed that Rudakubana, as a convicted murderer, is not entitled to automatic release. He will only ever be released if the parole board deems it safe and appropriate to do so. Even if he was released, he would be liable to close monitoring and supervision for the rest of his life. If he transgressed he would be immediately recalled to custody.
Applying schedule 21, Rudakubana's crimes, had he been aged 18 at the time, would fall comfortably within paragraph 3(1). That would give a minimum term starting point of 30 years.
However, as he committed these crimes as a 17-year-old, the minimum term starting point is adjusted in accordance with paragraph 5A(2). That would give a minimum term starting point of 27 years.
The judge will then consider any aggravating and mitigating factors. Aggravating factors will obviously push the minimum term upwards, whereas mitigating factors will push the minimum term downwards.
The judge will be careful not to double-count any factors that were used to arrive at the original 27 year starting point. The fact that Rudakubana murdered two or more people is already factored into that 27 year starting point, so it cannot be counted again as an aggravating factor.
However, Rudakubana has admitted a series of other offences that would certainly count as a serious aggravating factor to the murders. There has also been a degree of premeditation and planning, with Rudakubana seen "psyching himself up" several hours before the attack and booking a taxi to travel directly to the scene. The troubled teen has shown no remorse whatsoever for his actions on the day. Media commentators have suggested that the only reason he wore a mask in the dock was to conceal his smirking beneath.
In terms of mitigation, perhaps the most significant possibility - mental illness - has already been ruled out.
Adjusting the 27 year starting point to take into account the aggravating factors, I really can't see a minimum term less than about 35 years.
I should also mention that as Rudakubana was 17-years-old at the time of his crimes he is ineligible for a whole life order. Rightly or wrongly, the law considers that a youth is less culpable for their crimes than an adult.
I have seen fleeting mention of the possibility of a hospital order. That is not relevant in this case, as Rudakubana has admitted murder without putting forward the partial defence of diminished responsibility.
It should come as little surprise that the danger posed by Rudakubana was well known to the authorities. I shall save that for a future article.
Update (23/1/25): Rudakubana has now been sentenced.
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